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NIKKEI ASIAN REVIEW
Beijing sees 2018 as watershed year reminiscent of 1989 North
Korea's nuclear program sparked by fallout from Tiananmen crackdown
KATSUJI NAKAZAWA TOKYO
-- The crackdown by the Chinese People's Liberation Army 29 years ago
today against student protesters was one of a series of historic events
in 1989 that transformed global politics. But the tanks that crushed the
democratic uprising at Beijing's Tiananmen Square also spurred changes
in the relationship between China and North Korea that echo loudly in
2018.
Struggling under heavy international sanctions imposed after Tiananmen,
China embarked on economic reforms to break the impasse. One piece of
this puzzle involved normalizing diplomatic relations in 1992 with South
Korea, the bustling economy across the Yellow Sea. But
that move rattled China's traditional partner North Korea, which
believed it had a "friendship cemented in blood" since fighting side by
side in the Korean War. China teaming with the enemy to the south
represented a betrayal in the eyes of Pyongyang.
Sensing a threat to its security, North Korea concluded that developing
nuclear weapons was the only way to ensure its survival, despite the
global opposition such a move would bring. Pyongyang's nuclear program
at the center of the U.S.-North Korean dialogue today is rooted in that
reversal by China toward South Korea. For a
Chinese intellectual in his fifties, U.S. President Donald Trump's
comments Friday reviving a June 12 summit with North Korean leader Kim
Jong Un reminded him "vividly" of the events in 1989, the year that
changed the world. In
May 1989, workers at Beijing's Tiananmen Square try to drape the
portrait of Mao Zedong after it was pelted with paint by protesting
students. © Reuters
During the summer of 1989, this reporter was studying Chinese at a
university in Dalian, a city in China's northeastern province of
Liaoning. The beachside hotel in Dalian, where Kim and Chinese President
Xi Jinping met in early May, was a scenic tourist spot often visited by
students on excursions. Many
university students traveled to Beijing that June. Considerate railway
staff let students ride trains for free, and the youngsters took the
17-hour trip to join the thousands of students who rallied around the
Goddess of Democracy statue that was raised in Tiananmen Square. Some
of those students never returned. Whether they died or were arrested is
unknown. It was taboo for students to talk about the fate of those who
did not come back. Under pressure from the school, everyone became
silent. Later
that year, the world was swept up in euphoria over the fall of the
Berlin Wall. Communist regimes across the world fell like dominoes
following mass protests. But China was left behind. At the university
campus in Dalian, soldiers arrived as instructors in order to give
communist military training to the students. Mock trenches were dug, and
students trained with fake rifles as if it were a time of war.
Students were made to chant "Beware the 'Peaceful Evolution' theory" --
referring to a belief that the West sought to transform China through
nonmilitary means such as democracy and freedom. Nothing scared the
Chinese Communist Party more than this theory. Just
last week, the American president saw off a North Korean envoy on the
White House lawn, after granting him a nearly two-hour meeting in the
Oval Office. With Secretary of State Mike Pompeo by his side, Trump
waved at the black sport utility vehicle carrying Kim Yong Chol, who is
Kim Jong Un's right-hand man.
"We'll be meeting on June 12th in Singapore," the president told
reporters on the lawn. Trump went on to discuss the Korean War. "Can you
believe that we're talking about the ending of the Korean War? We're
talking about 70 years," he said. China
surely cannot help but remember 1989 and the years that followed, when
communist regimes fell one after another in the Soviet Union and eastern
Europe. However the discussions fare between Trump and Kim Jong Un in
Singapore on June 12, China needs North Korea to stay steadfastly on its
side.
Having the entire Korean Peninsula under American influence represents a
nightmare scenario for Beijing, which makes a U.S. guarantee of the
North Korean regime's survival as important for China as for Kim
himself. China
also fears that the framework for peace on the peninsula might proceed
without Beijing at the table. The "Panmunjom Declaration," issued after
the inter-Korean summit between Kim and South Korean President Moon
Jae-in at the end of April, noted that the two sides will "actively
pursue trilateral meetings involving the two Koreas and the United
States" to turn the current armistice into a peace treaty as well as
establish a permanent peace regime. As if
an afterthought, they added, "or quadrilateral meetings involving the
two Koreas, the United States and China." But clearly, this was a
secondary choice. Moon
is said to be considering participating in a trilateral summit just
after the Trump-Kim meeting in Singapore, in order to declare an
official end to the Korean War. Since
the Panmunjom Declaration, Beijing has pressured both North and South
Korea diplomatically to pursue a quadrilateral -- rather than trilateral
-- meeting, should one occur. But
the two Koreas have told China that since Beijing already has diplomatic
relations with both South Korea and the U.S. -- its two enemies during
the Korean War -- China technically does not need to sign a peace treaty
with them. Beijing categorically denies this logic. In
this context, Beijing listened closely to Trump's words on the White
House lawn, which included multiple references to China and flattery for
Xi. "I
think we see a lot of very positive things happening with President Xi,
who has helped me quite a bit with this," Trump said of the negotiations
with North Korea. "He's
really a very wonderful guy," Trump said, but added, "He's a man that
loves China, however. He wants to do what's best for China." Trump was
hinting that Xi's cooperation was strictly for China's national
interest, and not necessarily as a favor to the U.S. Trump
also expressed his desire that China, alongside South Korea and Japan,
would help North Korea rebuild its economy with financial assistance
after a deal is signed. "I think China's going to help a lot," he said.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying issued a statement
following Trump's remarks, saying "we are pleased" with the progress in
preparations for the summit. "Another important step has been taken
along the right path of politically resolving the Korean Peninsula
issue," she said.
Still, it is unclear how "pleased" Beijing will be with the outcome of
the Trump-Kim summit. China, like the rest of the world, cannot achieve
an accurate analysis of the situation, with Trump constantly altering
his stance.
Beijing will not let down its guard, knowing that -- just like in 1989
-- the world could face historic consequences if the Korean War truly
ends. Much
has changed in the past 29 years. China is much wealthier, and few
Chinese students would risk their lives to stand up for democracy. But
the summer of 2018 has all the ingredients to produce another
geopolitical reshuffling that reshapes the world. |